Archive for August, 2010
Dissertation : Habitat and Distribution of Javan Leopard (Panthera pardus melas Cuvier, 1809) in Fragmented Landscape in Central Java-Indonesia
Hendra Gunawan*, Lilik Budi Prasetyo, Ani Mardiastuti, Agus P.Kartono
Javan leopard (Panthera pardus melas Cuvier, 1809) is limited distributed in Java Island. Its population is continually decreasing so it listed in Redlist by the IUCN as critically endangered species. The decrease was mainly caused by fragmentation and degradation of forest. The objectives of this research are to map the distribution, to identify the habitat characteristics, to measure the fragmentation of natural forest and to make a spatial model of habitat suitability.The Methods were included GPS mapping of population, habitat analyses, fragmentation analyses using patch analyst and spatial modeling of habitat suitability using Arcview 3.2.The results found that there are 48 locations of javan leopards that distributed in five types of forest, i.e. pines plantation (43,8%), teak plantation (27,1%), natural mountain forest (14,5%), mixed plantation forest (8,3%) and natural lowland forest (6,3%). Javan leopard have preference to certain type of forest (P>0,05). There are eight components that crucial for habitat of javan leopard and relevant for spatial modeling of habitat suitability, i.e. patch extent, prey, forest vegetation, climate, water, topography, altitude and status of forest. Fragmentation in the last 16 years has reduced 88,0% of total natural forest area in central Java and increase the number of patches, total edge and edge density. Javan leopards are distributed in non-equilibrium, mainland-islands, classic and patchy metapopulations. Spatial model of habitat suitability result 21,39% patches of low suitability, 32,52% patches of moderate suitability and 46,09% patches of high suitability. The model are significantly valid with actual distribution of javan leopards (P<0,05).
Keywords: habitat, distribution, leopard, fragmentation, metapopulation, suitability
* Corresponding Author : Hendra Gunawan
Lilik B. Prasetyo & Chandra Irawadi Wijaya
Java is very populated since it is inhabited by more than 60% population of Indonesia. Based on Ministry of Forestry, between 2000 – 2005 forest loss in Java was about 800 thousands hectare. Regardless of the debate on the different methodology of forest inventory applied in 2005 that resulted in under estimation figure, the decrease of forest cover in Java are obvious and needs immediate response. Spatial modeling of the deforestation will assist the policy makers to understand the process and to take it into consideration when decisions are made. Moreover, the result can be used as data input to solve environmental problem resulted from deforestation. We modeled the deforestation in Java by using logistic regression. Percentage of deforested area was considered as the response variable, whilst biophysical and socioeconomic factors that explain the current spatial pattern in deforestation were assigned as explanatory variables. Furthermore, we predicted future deforestation process, and then for case of Java, it was validated with actual deforestation derived from MODIS satellite imagery between 2000-2008. Result of the study showed that impact of population density, road density and slope are significant. Population density and road density have negative impact on deforestation, meanwhile slope have positive impact on deforestation. Java Island tends to occur in remote area with limited access, low density population and relatively steep slope. Implication of the model is that the Government should pay more attention to remote rural areas and develop good access to accelerate and create alternative non agricultural jobs to reduce pressure on forest.
Note : Full paper in press (Land Use, Climate Change and Biodiversity Modeling: Applications and Perspectives)