Spatial Model Approach for Deforestation: case study in Java Island, Indonesia

Lilik B. Prasetyo & Chandra Irawadi Wijaya

Abstract

Java is very populated since it is inhabited by more than 60% population of Indonesia. Based on Ministry of Forestry, between 2000 – 2005 forest loss in Java was about 800 thousands hectare. Regardless of the debate on the different methodology of forest inventory applied in 2005 that resulted in under estimation figure, the decrease of forest cover in Java are obvious and needs immediate response. Spatial modeling of the deforestation will assist the policy makers to understand the process and to take it into consideration when decisions are made. Moreover, the result can be used as data input to solve environmental problem resulted from deforestation. We modeled the deforestation in Java by using logistic regression. Percentage of deforested area was considered as the response variable, whilst biophysical and socioeconomic factors that explain the current spatial pattern in deforestation were assigned as explanatory variables. Furthermore, we predicted future deforestation process, and then for case of Java, it was validated with actual deforestation derived from MODIS satellite imagery between 2000-2008. Result of the study showed that impact of population density, road density and slope are significant. Population density and road density have negative impact on deforestation, meanwhile slope have positive impact on deforestation. Java Island tends to occur in remote area with limited access, low density population and relatively steep slope. Implication of the model is that the Government should pay more attention to remote rural areas and develop good access to accelerate and create alternative non agricultural jobs to reduce pressure on forest.

Note : Full paper in press (Land Use, Climate Change and Biodiversity Modeling: Applications and Perspectives)

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